Experiments with a Model of Domestic Energy Demand

The CEDSS-3.4 agent-based model of domestic energy demand at community level is described. CEDSS (Community Energy Demand Social Simulator) is focused on household decisions (the model’s agents are households) to buy energy-using appliances, heating systems, and insulation, over the period from 2000 to 2049. Its empirical basis is a survey of households in Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire, Scotland, carried out in 2010, combined with publicly available data on household finances and equipment, and energy prices. CEDSS-3.4 emphasises mechanisms concerning value-strength dynamics and goal selection which influence such decisions, drawing on goal-framing theory. Results of experiments with the model are presented; the most important parameters for determining energy demand turn out to be economic (rates of change of incomes and of fuel prices), and the presence or absence of external (extra-community) influences on value-strengths. However, the value-strength dynamics used led in most runs to a single set of values dominating the population by 2049 – but even with identical parameters, different sets of values could become dominant, and which did so made a very considerable difference to demand. This resulted in bimodal distributions of outcome measures across the runs using a given parameter-setting in many cases; initial experiments indicated that changing parameters determining how far households influence each others’ values could at least reduce this tendency. Issues in the analysis of complex models with aspects unconstrained by either data or theory are discussed in the final section.